By Average UK house price annual inflation was negative 0.1% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023, compared with 0.8% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to August 2023.
The average UK house price was £291,000 in September 2023, which was little changed from 12 months ago but above the recent low in March 2023.
Average house prices in the 12 months to September 2023 decreased in England to £310,000 (negative 0.5%), decreased in Wales to £215,000 (negative 2.7%) and increased in Scotland to £195,000 (2.5%).
The average house price increased in the year to Q3 (Jul to Sep) 2023 to £180,000 in Northern Ireland (2.1%).
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average UK house prices decreased by 0.5% between August 2023 and September 2023, compared with an increase of 0.4% during the same period 12 months ago.
Annual house price inflation was highest in the North East where prices increased by 1.6% in the 12 months to September 2023.
The South West was the English region with the lowest annual inflation, where prices decreased by 1.6% in the 12 months to September 2023.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS’) September 2023 UK Residential Market Survey reported a downturn in buyer demand.
When viewed at the regional and country level, most parts of the UK continue to see significant pull-back in demand.
The Bank of England’s Agents summary of business conditions 2023 Q3 reported that higher mortgage rates had been the main factor in a further weakening of housing market activity.
Demand was lower than supply for the first time in a few years and it is seen as unlikely to pick up until mortgage rates stop rising.
HMRC’s UK Property Transactions Statistics showed that in September 2023, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the estimated number of transactions of residential properties with a value of £40,000 or greater was 85,610.
This is 17.0% lower than 12 months ago (September 2022).
Between August 2023 and September 2023, UK transactions decreased by 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The Bank of England’s Money and Credit September 2023 release reported that mortgage approvals for house purchases, an indicator of future borrowing, decreased to 43,300 in September 2023 from 45,400 in August 2023, the lowest level since January 2023 (39,900).
England
In England the September data shows, on average, house prices have fallen by 0.5% since September 2023.
The annual price fall of 0.5% takes the average property value to £310,000.
The regional data for England indicates that:
- the North West experienced the greatest monthly rise with a movement of 0.5%
- Yorkshire and the Humber saw the lowest monthly price growth, with a fall of 2.0%
- the North East experienced the greatest annual price rise, up by 1.6%
- the South West saw the lowest annual price growth, with a fall of 1.6%
Price change by region for England
| Region | Average price August 2023 | Annual change % since August 2022 | Monthly change % since Aug 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | £251,000 | 0.4 | -0.6 |
| East of England | £353,000 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| London | £537,000 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| North East | £163,000 | 1.6 | -2 |
| North West | £218,000 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| South East | £392,000 | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| South West | £329,000 | -1.6 | -0.1 |
| West Midlands | £254,000 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | £210,000 | 0 | -2.4 |
Repossession sales by volume for England
The lowest number of repossession sales in July 2023 was in the East of England and South West.
The highest number of repossession sales in July 2023 was in the North West.
| Repossession sales | July 2023 |
|---|---|
| East Midlands | 5 |
| East of England | 1 |
| London | 9 |
| North East | 8 |
| North West | 16 |
| South East | 5 |
| South West | 1 |
| West Midlands | 2 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 5 |
| England | 52 |
Average price by property type for England
| Property type | September 2023 | September 2022 | Difference % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | £490,000 | £487,000 | 0.6 |
| Semi-detached | £297,000 | £298,000 | -0.2 |
| Terraced | £252,000 | £256,000 | -1.5 |
| Flat/maisonette | £252,000 | £254,000 | -0.6 |
| All | £310,000 | £311,000 | -0.5 |
Funding and buyer status for England
| Transaction type | Average price September2023 | Annual price change % since September 2022 | Monthly price change % since August 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | £289,000 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| Mortgage | £320,000 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| First-time buyer | £257,000 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Former owner occupier | £355,000 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
Building status for England
| Building status* | Average price July 2023 | Annual price change % since July 2023 | Monthly price change % since June 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New build | £438,000 | 16.3 | 1.9 |
| Existing resold property | £301,000 | -0.2 | 1 |
*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.
London
London shows, on average, house prices have fallen by 0.3% since August 2023.
An annual price fall of 1.1% takes the average property value to £537,424.
Average price by property type for London
| Property type | September 2023 | September 2022 | Difference % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | £1,076,000 | £1,112,000 | -3.3 |
| Semi-detached | £687,000 | £707,000 | -2.8 |
| Terraced | £592,000 | £600,000 | -1.3 |
| Flat/maisonette | £447,000 | £448,000 | -1.1 |
| All | £537,000 | £544,000 | -1.1 |
Funding and buyer status for London
| Transaction type | Average price September 2023 | Annual price change % since September 2022 | Monthly price change % since August 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | £548,000 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| Mortgage | £533,000 | -0.8 | 0 |
| First-time buyer | £465,000 | -0.6 | 0.2 |
| Former owner occupier | £616,000 | -1.9 | -1 |
Building status for London
| Building status* | Average price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Annual price change % since July 2023 | Monthly price change % since June 2023 | |
| New build | £594,000 | 11.6 | 1.2 |
| Existing resold property | £531,000 | -1.6 | 1.6 |
*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.
Wales
Wales shows, on average, house prices have fallen by 0.9% since August 2023.
An annual price fall of 2.7% takes the average property value to £215,000.
There were 2 repossession sales for Wales in June 2023.
Average price by property type for Wales
| Property type | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Difference % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | £333,000 | £338,000 | -1.3 |
| Semi-detached | £209,000 | £214,000 | -2.3 |
| Terraced | £166,000 | £173,000 | -4.3 |
| Flat/maisonette | £135,000 | £137,000 | -1.6 |
| All | £215,000 | £221,000 | -2.7 |
Funding and buyer status for Wales
| Transaction type | Average price September 2023 | Annual price change % since Sep 2022 | Monthly price change % since August 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | £207,000 | -3 | -1 |
| Mortgage | £219,000 | 2.6 | -0.9 |
| First-time buyer | £185,000 | -3.1 | -1 |
| Former owner occupier | £251,000 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
Building status for Wales
| Building status* | Average price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Annual price change % since July 2022 | Monthly price change % since June 2023 | |
| New build | £336,000 | 17.5 | 2.2 |
| Existing resold property | £251,000 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, comments:
“Although reflecting what was happening a few months ago when buyers and sellers were trying to come to terms with rapidly-rising mortgage and inflation rates, this survey includes cash buyers, not just those relying on mortgages, so is more comprehensive than most.
Recent data suggests that the threats of rising mortgage and inflation rates are receding.
This, combined with pay rises outstripping the cost of living, means we have found on the ground that would-be buyers and sellers are tentatively considering returning to the market.”
Anna Clare Harper, CEO of sustainable investment adviser GreenResi, comments:
“The biggest price falls were in the East of England, followed by the South West and South East, while prices rose the most in the North East. This is partly as a result of the starting point, with houses in the North East far more affordable than other parts of the country.
And it’s partly because house price levels reflect supply and demand, and demand is weaker in less affordable locations.
While the headlines are gloomy, there were only 52 repossessions in England in July 2023, a figure which seems small compared with the circa 29 million homes in the UK.
What is interesting for investors is that there are and will continue to be plenty of opportunities to buy at attractive prices as demand has fallen.”
CEO of Octane Capital, Jonathan Samuels, comments:
“Although it’s arguably taken far longer than it should have, inflation is now at its lowest in two years and this is likely to bring a further boost to a property market that has already been showing signs of resilience in recent months.”
CEO of Yopa, Verona Frankish, comments:
“We’ve already seen early signs that a freeze on interest rates has helped to stabilise the market, with both Nationwide and Halifax reporting monthly increases in October, as buyers start to return to the fold with a greater degree of confidence.
While we’re yet to see any notable change with respect to actual sold prices, it’s important to remember that these figures are reported on a lag and It’s only a matter of time before this uplift in market activity starts to filter through to the prices being achieved by the nation’s sellers.
What’s more, there are whisperings of yet another stamp duty incentive set to be unveiled in the Autumn Statement this month and we know the positive impact this can bring from past experiences.”
Director of Benham and Reeves, Marc von Grundherr, comments:
“The nights may have drawn in but the future of the property market is currently looking far brighter than many would have anticipated at the start of the year.
Yes, sold prices are yet to show any significant movement in either direction and the cost of borrowing remains higher than the record lows home buyers had become accustomed to.
However, the key is stability, and with interest rates frozen and inflation falling, 2024 should bring a far more settled time for buyers and sellers alike.”
Managing Director of House Buyer Bureau, Chris Hodgkinson, comments:
“Although it’s yet to show with respect to sold prices, the property market certainly seems to have taken a step in the right direction and all signs point to a far more stable outlook over the months ahead.
This should help reassure sellers that now is as good a time as any to sell and, with further positivity coming via a hold on interest rates, we should also see buyer activity start to climb.
Of course, transaction times are still taking far longer and this brings an increased chance of fall throughs, so caution is still key when looking to negotiate the current market landscape.”
Residential Director at Woods Hardwick, Tom Francis, comments:
“The property market has stood fairly static over the last year and a reduction in buyer activity caused by higher mortgage rates has resulted in house prices cooling.
However, new-build property values have continued to put in a strong performance and this should help reassure the nation’s housebuilders in what have become uncertain economic times.
With yet another demand based, stamp duty incentive seemingly on the cards, we can expect a surge in buyer activity which should help to ensure a healthy delivery of new homes, as well as a robust degree of house price growth come the new year.”
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, comments:
“The footnote tells a more important story than the headline figures.
Sales volumes have fallen by about a fifth, making it more difficult for the Land Registry to calculate its index, which is the real story of this slowdown.
Price declines have been kept in check by hesitant buyers and sellers but thin trading means house price data should be handled with care.
There is no single event keeping activity in check as there was during the pandemic or after mini-Budget but rising mortgage rates and economic, political and geopolitical uncertainty are all sapping sentiment.
We think most of the price decline has now taken place and activity will improve next year as the mortgage market and economic backdrop stabilise.”
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