By There’s been a sizeable shift in the planned use of commercial property in London’s outer boroughs which exceeds pre pandemic levels, according to data released by commercial real estate experts, EG.
In Q1 2023, overall enquiries fell just 7% in outer London, compared to 17% in inner London.
However, property professionals are warning that changes to transport policy, including the expansion of ULEZ and cuts to buses, could threaten the trend.
Analysis of change of use and planning applications shows that when compared to zones 1 and 2, London’s outer ‘doughnut’ is defying the economic gloom by expanding with resilience.
In an exclusive analysis of the latest data by EG, occupiers are seeing merit in decamping to outer boroughs.
Over a four-year period, accounting for one year before the pandemic, change of use applications grew exponentially more in outer London boroughs than in zones 1 and 2.
The figures show stark discrepancies, including:
A sustained rate of change in Newham, Waltham Forest and Hillingdon – compared to Hammersmith, Islington, and Lambeth.
With a 9.26% share of planning applications, Barking and Dagenham leads all boroughs when it comes to change of use, with another outer borough, Hillingdon, in third with 5.56%.
Newham comes 4th for retail deals in Q1 23 and Bexley 2nd for industrial deals.
Bromley’s growth in enquiries is up 105.26% year on year from Q1 2022.
With a 20.53% share of deals in Q1 23, Brent is leading the charge.
Of all London boroughs, Barnet has seen the third-largest jump in demand year-on-year, with a 96% rise in overall enquiries.
It is the only borough to see a rise in all three sectors, with demand for industrial and retail space up 85% and 76% respectively.
Commenting, Jonny Tomlinson, head of researched data at EG, said:
“Business and commercial property owners are motivated by their bottom line and our data shows that the path to boosting it lies in outer London boroughs.
Against a backdrop of contentious transport policy changes, including the expansion of ULEZ, and cuts to buses alongside post pandemic hybrid working, the trajectory and strength of this pattern looks set to be tested.
The benefits will be widely felt. The outer boroughs expanding into thriving business hubs means growth in business rates, footfall, and all adds up to only benefits to the local economy.
Our data suggests potential for an imminent redrawing of London economics.
Any savvy expanding business will be drawn to the opportunity this shift is presenting but examining those decisions with a ULEZ shaped magnifying glass.”
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