HMRC have released property transactions for June 2024,

HMRC have just released property transactions for June 2024, which can be seen here and in summary:

Executive Summary: Latest UK Property Transactions Data

Residential Transactions:

• Seasonally Adjusted:
  • June 2024: 91,370 transactions
  • 8% increase from June 2023
  • Less than 1% decrease from May 2024 (91,880)
• Non-Seasonally Adjusted:
  • June 2024: 90,420 transactions
  • 5% decrease from June 2023
  • 2% decrease from May 2024

Non-Residential Transactions:

• Seasonally Adjusted:
  • June 2024: 9,710 transactions
  • 2% decrease from June 2023
  • 3% decrease from May 2024
• Non-Seasonally Adjusted:
  • June 2024: 9,220 transactions
  • 12% decrease from June 2023
  • 9% decrease from May 2024

Key Insights:

• Residential Transactions:
  • Seasonally adjusted transactions show a marginal decline (less than 1%) from May to June 2024, the first such decline since December 2023.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted transactions also fell by 2% month-on-month.
• Non-Residential Transactions:
  • Both seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted transactions saw a decline from May to June 2024, with non-seasonally adjusted transactions experiencing a sharper drop of 9%.

Detailed Analysis:

Residential Property Transactions:

• Trends from 2015 to 2024 (Figure 3):
  • The provisional estimate for June 2024 indicates a slight increase in seasonally adjusted transactions compared to June 2023, but a decrease from the previous month.
  • Historical data shows fluctuations with peaks in transactions during March, June, and September 2021 due to tax incentives.
• Financial Year Comparison (Figure 4):
  • The provisional estimates for April to June 2024 show an increase compared to the previous year.
• Historic Trends (Figure 5):
  • Significant peaks in transactions correspond to tax policy changes and the financial crisis in 2007.

Non-Residential Property Transactions:

• Trends from 2015 to 2024 (Figure 6):
  • June 2024 transactions show a decrease both year-on-year and month-on-month, with seasonally adjusted figures slightly higher than non-seasonally adjusted ones.
• Financial Year Comparison (Figure 7):
  • Provisional estimates for April to June 2024 indicate stable transactions compared to previous years.
• Historic Trends (Figure 8):
  • The data reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis on transaction volumes.

About This Release:

• Source: HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), Revenue Scotland, and the Welsh Revenue Authority (WRA).
• Coverage: Includes records for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), and Land Transaction Tax (LTT).
• Updates: Provisional data published monthly, subject to revisions as more complete data becomes available.

Figures and Trends:

• Figure 1 & 2: Show monthly trends for residential and non-residential transactions from June 2021 to June 2024.
• Figure 3 to 8: Provide comparisons and historical context for transaction volumes, highlighting the impact of tax changes and economic events.

Industry comments:

Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “Hot, sunny weather, combined with buyers who may have delayed their plans now wanting to get on with their moves this year, is resulting in a busy time for the housing market.

“In our offices, we are hearing increased talk about the prospect of interest rates falling, with vendors hoping and buyers wishing that this will happen imminently.

“However, buyers need to be careful what they wish for as cheaper mortgages will almost certainly mean higher asking prices. If we see a flurry of new applicants coming back to the market, encouraged by cheaper mortgage rates, then these higher prices are likely to be achieved.”

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “Subdued transaction numbers are unsurprising considering the upcoming general election and higher mortgage rates, with many buyers and sellers sitting on their hands.

“However, with numerous lenders reducing their fixed-rate mortgages on the back of cheaper Swap rates, borrowers are hoping this is a sign of better things to come and should boost transaction numbers in coming months.

“An interest rate reduction in the autumn will further boost buyer confidence and activity.

“However, borrowers must still get used to paying more for their mortgages as the days of rock-bottom deals are long gone.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “These figures, though reflecting housing market activity from a few months ago, are more comprehensive than most as include not just mortgage but cash sales. 

“The build up to the election clearly had little or no impact on buyers and sellers, many of whom have been much more interested in when the first drop in base rate will happen.

“Although mortgages have become a little cheaper recently, only a signal from the Bank of England is likely to have a noticeable effect especially when anticipated for such a long time.” 

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says: “These transaction numbers suggest that in the lead up to the election there was some uncertainty as to what a potential Labour government might bring, which was reflected in property market sentiment. 

“With some positivity on the horizon with rate cuts to come, and the election outcome known, it is hoped that Labour’s promises to bring stability and confidence to the UK are fulfilled.

“Some help from the Chancellor in her Budget is needed, with stamp duty reforms to assist the market and increase transaction levels.”