By It can be seen here, and here are the key statistics from the latest transactions data:
Residential Transactions:
- The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for March 2024 is 84,200, which is 6% lower than March 2023 but 1% higher than February 2024.
- The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for March 2024 is 86,980, showing a 9% decrease compared to March 2023 but a significant 20% increase compared to February 2024.
- Seasonally adjusted residential transactions have seen a third consecutive month-on-month increase, rising by 1% from February 2024 to March 2024.
- Seasonally adjusted residential transactions for March 2024 are 6% lower than March 2023.
- For the financial year 2023 to 2024, seasonally adjusted residential transactions decreased by 17% compared to the previous financial year, marking the lowest level since the financial year 2012 to 2013.
Non-Residential Transactions:
- The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for March 2024 is 9,950, showing a 9% decrease compared to March 2023 but a 1% increase compared to February 2024.
- The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for March 2024 is 11,270, indicating a 15% decrease compared to March 2023 but a notable 29% increase compared to February 2024.
- Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions have increased by 1% relative to February 2024.
- Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions for March 2024 are 9% lower than March 2023.
- For the financial year 2023 to 2024, seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions decreased by 4% compared to the previous financial year, marking the lowest level since the financial year 2020 to 2021.
- Overall, while there are increases in monthly non-seasonally adjusted transactions for both residential and non-residential sectors, seasonally adjusted figures show decreases compared to the same period last year.
Industry comments:
Anna Clare Harper, CEO of sustainable investment adviser GreenResi, says: “Transactions are down by 6 per cent compared with the previous year, and yet pricing is relatively stable.
“Among homeowners and aspiring homeowners, we often hear concerns about an impending house price crash due to slowing demand.
“However, this is unlikely for several reasons. Firstly, housing demand is driven by necessity: we all need a roof over our heads. Secondly, many homeowners have no mortgage or need to sell at a price below valuations in previous years. Finally, with a general election looming this is ever more relevant: no political party will put in place policies that risk harming house prices, as this is guaranteed to lose votes.
“For this reason, fears of a house price crash are over-blown, whether they come from home owners or elsewhere in the real estate market, for example commercial property, which has experienced significant re-pricing unlikely to be matched by residential.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “Transactions are key to assessing the health of the property market at any particular time as they not only reflect mortgaged and cash activity but leave speculation about prices to the lenders and portals.
“These figures, although showing what was happening a few months ago at least, recognise the underlying strengths in buyer and seller confidence, despite the inevitable ups and downs as mortgage rates vary.
“Overall, most recognise that even small increases in payments won’t dent the otherwise firmly held view that the direction of travel for rates is downwards.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “Spring has finally sprung and the housing market has kicked into gear. Our offices are the busiest they have been all year, mainly with family homes coming to market and a significant uplift in viewings. Our Richmond office had 40 sales viewings just on Saturday alone.
“Well-finished properties are the ones capturing most attention from buyers, mainly down to uncertain costs when it comes to refurbishment work and the challenge in finding the right builder.
“Mortgage rates creeping up is definitely not helping the market and is holding back the lower end. The Bank of Mum and Dad is still essential for most first-time buyers looking to purchase in London and the southeast where property prices are higher.
“We expect the housing market to continue to strengthen at least until the summer as long as a snap general election isn’t called or significant increase in mortgage rates.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “Transaction numbers have picked up again month-on-month. Although they are down compared with last year.
“Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, have been rising for a while but it is only in the past week or so that lenders have been raising their rates accordingly. This is unwelcome news in particular for those borrowers who have held off committing to a product in the hope that rates would have come down further by now, with many being caught out.
“Our advice to borrowers is to secure a rate now for peace of mind. Rates can be booked up to six months before you need them so if you are remortgaging this year, it’s worth speaking to a whole-of-market broker. Then, when you come to take out the mortgage if rates have fallen you can choose a cheaper deal.”
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